The Fragile States Index (Failed States Index), produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, the FSI - and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built - makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
The strength of the FSI is its ability to distill millions of pieces of information into a form that is relevant as well as easily digestible and informative. Daily, The Fund for Peace collects thousands of reports and information from around the world, detailing the existing social, economic and political pressures faced by each of the 178 countries.
The FSI is based on The Fund for Peace's proprietary Conflict Assessment Software Tool (CAST) analytical platform. Based on comprehensive social science methodology, data from three primary sources is triangulated and subjected to critical review to obtain final scores for the FSI. Millions of documents are analyzed every year. By applying highly specialized search parameters, scores are apportioned for every country based on twelve key political, social and economic indicators (which in turn include over 100 sub-indicators) that are the result of years of painstaking expert social science research. The Fund for Peace's software performs content analysis on this collected information.
The scores produced by The Fund for Peace's software are also compared with a comprehensive set of vital statistics - as well as human analysis - to ensure that the software has not misinterpreted the raw data. Though the basic data underpinning the Failed States Index is already freely and widely available electronically, the strength of the analysis is in the methodological rigor and the systematic integration of a wide range of data sources.
Note: The principle of data timing was changed. Data from reports correspond to the situation from the previous year. The 2020 Fragile States Index, comprises data collected between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2019. Therefore data from Report 2020 is recorded for 2019 and the same logic works for all other years.
Last updated by source: 2021-04-01
| Dataset type: | Time-Series |
| Dataset level: | Country |
(Haken et al., 2020)
Demographic Pressure - Pressures on the population such as disease and natural disasters make it difficult for the government to protect its citizens or demonstrate a lack of capacity or will. Includes pressures and measures related to natural disasters, disease, environment, pollution, food scarcity, malnutrition, water scarcity, population growth, youth bulge, mortality.
More about this variableEconomic Decline Indicator - It considers factors related to economic decline within a country. For example, the Indicator looks at patterns of progressive economic decline of the society as a whole as measured by per capita income, Gross National Product, unemployment rates, inflation, productivity, debt, poverty levels, or business failures. It also takes into account sudden drops in commodity prices, trade revenue, or foreign investment, and any collapse or devaluation of the national currency. The Economic Decline Indicator further considers the responses to economic conditions and their consequences, such as extreme social hardship imposed by economic austerity programs, or perceived increasing group inequalities. The Economic Decline Indicator is focused on the formal economy - as well as illicit trade, including the drug and human trafficking, and capital flight, or levels of corruption and illicit transactions such as money laundering or embezzlement.
More about this variableExternal Intervention - When the state fails to meet its international or domestic obligations, external actors may intervene to provide services or to manipulate internal affairs. Includes pressures and measures related to foreign assistance, presence of peacekeepers, presence of UN missions, foreign military intervention, sanctions, credit rating.
More about this variableFactionalized Elites - When local and national leaders engage in deadlock and brinkmanship for political gain, this undermines the social contract. Includes pressures and measures related to power struggles, defectors, flawed elections, political competition.
More about this variableFragile States Index (The Failed States Index) includes an examination of the pressures on states, their vulnerability to internal conflict and societal deterioration. The country ratings are based on the total scores of 12 indicators: Social Indicators 1. Mounting Demographic Pressures 2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies 3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia 4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight. Economic Indicators 5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines 6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline. Political Indicators 7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State 8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services 9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights 10. Security Apparatus Operates as a ``State Within a State'' 11. Rise of Factionalized Elites 12. Intervention of Other States or External Politicl Actors. For each indicator, the ratings are placed on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 being the lowest intensity (most stable) and 10 being the highest intensity (least stable). The total score is the sum of the 12 indicators and is on a scale of 0-120.
More about this variableGroup Grievance - When tension and violence exists between groups, the state's ability to provide security is undermined and fear and further violence may ensue. Includes pressures and measures related to discrimination, powerlessness, ethnic violence, communal violence, sectarian violence, religious violence.
More about this variableHuman Flight and Brain Drain - When there is little opportunity, people migrate, leaving a vacuum of human capital. Those with resources also often leave before, or just as, conflicts erupt. Includes pressures and measures related to migration per capita, human capital, emigration of educated population.
More about this variableHuman Rights and Rule of Law - When human rights are violated or unevenly protected, the state is failing in its ultimate responsibility. Includes pressures and measures related to press freedom, civil liberties, political freedoms, human trafficking, political prisoners, incarceration, religious persecution, torture, executions.
More about this variablePublic Services - The provision of health, education, and sanitation services, among others, are key roles of the state. Includes pressures and measures related to policing, criminality, education provision, literacy, water and sanitation, infrastructure, quality healthcare, telephony, internet access, energy reliability, roads.
More about this variableRefugees and IDPs - Pressures associated with population displacement. This strains public services and has the potential to pose a security threat. Includes pressures and measures related to displacement, refugee camps, IDP camps, disease related to displacement, refugees per capita, IDPs per capita, absorption capacity.
More about this variableSecurity Apparatus - The security apparatus should have monopoly on the use of legitimate force. The social contract is weakened where this is affected by competing groups. Includes pressures and measures related to internal conflict, small arms proliferation, riots and protests, fatalities from conflict, military coups, rebel activity, militancy, bombings, political prisoners.
More about this variableState Legitimacy - Corruption and lack of representativeness in the government directly undermine the social contract. Includes pressures and measures related to corruption, government effectiveness, political participation, electoral process, level of democracy, illicit economy, drug trade, protests and demonstrations, power struggles.
More about this variableUneven Economic Development - When there are ethnic, religious, or regional disparities, the governed tend to be uneven in their commitment to the social contract. Includes pressures and measures related to GINI coefficient, income share of highest 10%, income share of lowest 10%, urban-rural service distribution, access to improved services, slum population.
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